Background
Most of us want to know as early as possible who wins. But, often, election night media coverage focuses on prolonging the process (often waiting too long before making predictions, or showing out-of-context early results). And, with increasing numbers voting in advance / by mail, traditional exit polling doesn’t work well and the returns from early voting are not always similar to the returns from election day voting.
Between now and e-day I expect to ramp up some analytics on early vote (age, gender & party affiliation are available in many state), the fundraising (Trump’s low $ has declined bigly and is likely a sign of decreased motivation in his base, although I’ve no doubt they would reply that the Harris economy has hurt them so much they can’t afford to donate to their favorite billionaire) and others. I’ll be doing this via this Substack as well as FB & Twitter.
This is my hour-by-hour guide as to what we may know and when we may know it regarding the presidential race and the senate majority. While I’m an unabashedly pro-Harris/Walz, pro-Democratic Senate progressive, I’ve tried to make the analysis as non-partisan as possible. I’ve included the # of Electoral votes and SilverReport status as of 10/26. My bio / why I do this is in Endnote 1.
If this is before 6pm on election day, I recommend you read the overview and skim the hour by hour “run of show”. I’ve tried to highlight what I think will be knowable / talked about (on the TV networks) during each hour from 7pm to 1am. Feel free to email or comment with ideas on how to make this better. The companion sheet to this document will include early vote totals, where I can get them, and other useful data. I’ll try to turn it into something that can be printed out for ‘keeping score’ at home. And aim to have it completed by mid-day on Tuesday 11/4. There will also be a “follow-along at home” live version of the sheet for my predictive models of PA, MI, WI, AZ, GA, NC
As I write this, the election appears to be a toss-up based on reliable polling and modeling. The two big questions, starting early in the evening (and likely a few days before as early ballot #s get finalized). Are:
Will Harris or Trump have a more effective Get Out the Vote (GOTV) operation that adds 1-2 points to their pre-election day polling, thus turning the election;
In what way are the polls inaccurate, and will early election returns point to systemic polling issues that will enable a rapid prediction of the night’s outcome (if the polls are consistently off by 2% in either direction, the overall outcome is much clearer). Paradoxically, despite how close the polling is, it’s likely the final election numbers will show a greater than 1-2% margin of victory — this is much bigger than current polling), but nobody knows in which direction the current polling is off.
Current polling shows a decrease in polarization based on race and an increase based on gender – essentially hispanic males and african american males, while still strongly supporting Harris, are not supporting as highly as in ‘20, and white women are moving away from Trump. Some early network and exit poll data will help either confirm this trend (not great for Harris in AZ, GA, & NV) or disprove it (potentially good for Trump in MI & PA)
If there’s no obvious “adjustment” that can be made to the pre-election polling by 9pm, then the electoral college and US geography makes for an interesting election night. I think it’s likely that by 10:30pm we will see Trump xxx, Harris yyy, uncalled 223 (this assumes that the networks will take longer to call states because of Exit polling issues). Trump could be as high as 166 by 10:30 (if the networks get aggressive and call OH and TX early). It’s unlikely that Harris will be the winner of more than 200 electoral votes before 11pm (CA closes at 11pm and networks are likely to call its 55 votes for her shortly thereafter. For those who get anxious about a Trump win, I recommend adding 78 to Harris’ number throughout the evening to keep things more even (CA, WA, OR, HI) [and 24 to Trump’s (IA, MT, UT, ID, AK)]. However, I think some things could become clear by 7:30pm, and that’s why I’ve created this hour-by-hour guide.
Additionally I spent some time looking at when AP, Fox, MS-NBC, Fox & CBS called the race in ‘20 and am including that at the bottom of each state. Last time around, Fox was the most aggressive at making calls early (and never incorrect), followed by the Associated Press.
Senate control
I plan to update this by just before the election, but at this point there are key races in several states, and MT, NE and TX are all stretches for the Ds (independent in the NE case) that would be required for Dem. control.
6pm Eastern Time
Polls close in the Eastern time zone sections of Indiana and Kentucky -- it’s unlikely that there will be any forecasts at this time. This is my least favorite hour to watch on election night - a lot of people trying to make very limited data (other than early voting totals) fit their predictions. At least half of the ‘what to look for’ predictions they make could be wrong, but it’s hard to tell which half…
Note, I’ll likely start tweeting (I’m @evangrossman) by 7 or 8 if there are any useful nuggets of data.
7pm Eastern Time
States with 60 EV close, and we will start getting returns from some areas fairly quickly
Likely network calls, Trump: SC, IN, KY 28 / Harris: VT 3 (possibly VA 13)
Georgia (16, L-Trump) NYT & Silver models are showing this leaning Trump. Any early indications that he is underperforming ‘20 will be strong for Harris (Biden narrowly won in ‘20).
Mail-in votes start processing early with them fed into the counter starting 7am on eDay, so, in theory, the results should not be delayed much by mail in voting..
In ‘20, Georgia wasn’t called by any networks until Friday 11/13,
South Carolina (9, L-Trump) Trump won this by 11.7% in ‘20. However, with cities reporting early it may be a little longer before we have a good sense of how things are going. Exit polling could show if Trump gained a larger share of African American men vs. ‘20. While every state is different, early indications that Harris is losing >10% share of AA males vs /20 would not be a good sign. [AP called at 7:56 in ‘20]
Virginia (13, L-Harris) - Biden was +10.1 in ‘20, and it’s possible networks may call this early rather than keep the tossup designation it had for the past two cycles. Because of a significant # of rural counties, accurate statewide percentages take >2 hours. In ‘20 Fox called at 7p, AP at 7:40p, but CNN & MS-NBC waited until midnight (b/c the first few hours of returns are strongly red)
Vermont (3, L-Harris) - Biden was +35.4 in ‘20 [AP & Fox called at 7p in ‘20]
Sanders (I-I) / Malloy (R) - All signs point to Bernie earning re-election
Indiana (11, L-Trump) - +16 Trump in ‘20, Senate: Banks (i, R) should have an easy re-election.[MS-NBC & CNN called at 7:01p in ‘20]
Banks (R) / McCray (D) - Expect Banks to win seat being vacated by Mike Braun (R) who is running for governor.
Kentucky (8, L-Trump) - +27 Trump in ‘20. Unlikely to be many surprises here, and ballots can now be processed / counted earlier than in ‘16. If exit polling / early forecasting show Trump < +20, that will bode well for Harris in NC and GA [AP called at 7p in ‘20, most others at ~8p]
7:30pm Eastern Time
Another 37 EV come into play (NC, OH, WV) and we may start getting a few bellwether precincts from VA and GA. Expect networks to Call Trump OH & WV quickly
Likely tot: Trump: 49 / Harris: 3 (16 if VA is called early)
North Carolina (16, tossup) - Trump won by 1.3% in ‘20 but polls have shown Harris doing much better vs. ‘20 then she is doing in GA. Additionally, the implosion of the R’s Gubernatorial candidate, Robinson, could help Ds. Results will also come in very quickly from many areas, and will enable tuning of actuals vs. model results. [In ‘20 this wasn’t called by a network until Sat. 11/7]
Ohio (17, L-Trump) - JD Vance’s home state, and Trump won by 20% in ‘20, so this is no longer a battleground state. It will be essential for Incumbent D Sherrod Brown to hold onto his senate seat for the D’s to have a chance at Senate control.[Fox called at 11:46p in ‘20 most others by 12:15a]
Brown (D-I) / Moreno (R) - Sherrod Brown has a tough battle to keep his seat
West Virginia (4, L-Trump) - Trump won by 39% and with the retirement of DINO Senator Manchin, this seat is likely to flip to Justice. But we could still be surprised. [AP & Fox called at 7:30p in ‘20]
Elliott (D) / Justice (R) - With DINO Joe Manchin retiring, the seat will likely turn R – Jim Justice is far ahead of Glenn Elliott in the polls.
8pm Eastern Time
By now we should start having some 2020 vs. 2024 comparisons from Georgia, Virginia, and South Carolina that could suggest the contours of the outcome (Nail biter vs. strong win by either candidate). BUT, it’s unlikely that there will be strong predictions of any Senate upsets or battleground states. Technically, the voting will have ended in states comprising 274 Electoral votes (although in many states, there could still be long lines and voting may continue for a while).
Expected network calls:
Trump AL, KS, MS, MO, OK TN (49) + earlier IN, KY, OH, SC, WV (49) = 98
Harris: CT, DE, DC, MD, MA, NJ,RI, IL (71) + earlier VT (3) =74 (87 w/ VA)
In order of states to watch, here’s what closes at 8p (which means you likely won’t have any good results before 9p).
Pennsylvania (19, Tossup) - Biden +1.2 in 20. t’s unlikely that we’ll have any significant results out of PA for several hours. PA is one of two close states (WI is the other) that don’t allow processing of ballots before election day (7a in PA, 8a in WI). This caused multiple days of delays in ‘20, and the election night #s strongly favored Trump vs. the mail-in Ballots which went strongly for Biden There is a high likelihood that totals in several large areas won’t be reported until well into Wed. or Thursday. Additionally, because ballots postmarked on 11/5 can still be counted if they arrive over the following 3 days, there will almost definitely be tens of thousands more to count. Polling has this as one of the closest states this cycle – Trump beat Hillary by 44k votes in 16, Biden beat Trump by 80k in ‘20.[Wasn’t called until Sat 11/7 in, but clear by Wed. ‘20]
Casey (D-I) / McCormack (R) Casey should get re-elected regardless of Harris’ statewide vote, but it will be close.
Maine (4, L-Harris) - This is a complex state for many reasons -- It’s one of two states (Nebraska, closing at 9p is the other) that allocates EVs based on Congressional districts. The statewide and ME-01 are Harris, but Trump will likely win ME-02 (he won it by 7pts in ‘20 and 10pts in ‘16) Maine historically (especially in the more rural 2nd district) can take a while to get results in, so it’s unlikely we’ll see any calls before 10p. .[Fox called first 3 votes at 8:15p in ‘20 most others waited until next day]
King (I-I) / Costello (D) / Kouzonunas (R)- Angus King should keep the seat
New Hampshire (4, L-Harris) - If Al Gore had gotten 4k more votes in NH, he would not have needed Florida… Since then, the state has become increasingly blue (Biden won by 7% in ‘20, vs. Clinton’s .4% in ‘16). Early returns from Manchester and Nashua could indicate if Ds dramatically improved turnout and also percentage wins. .[Fox called at 8:44p in ‘20, but most others waited until 10:30-11]
Florida (30, L-Trump) - Polling suggests this will be solidly red on the presidential side this year. It may even be called prior to 10p b/c most of the state closes at 7p (and counting starts) even though totals don’t start being available until 8p. The counties to look at (along with links to the county websites for fast election night reporting) are Duval (Jacksonville), Hernando, Sumter, Pinellas (St. Petersburg), and Miami-Dade. In ‘20 Miami was one of the few places Trump significantly improved from his ‘16 performance (thanks to hispanic males). Early Miami returns could confirm polling showing hispanic males moving further from the Democratic party.[Fox called at 11:06p in ‘20 others just after midnight]
Scott (R-I) / Mucarsel-Powell (D) Expect Rick Cott to beat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell unless the unlikely blue wave comes to Florida (which would be counter to all recent polling)
Alabama (9, Trump) - Trump doesn’t need another 26 point margin to keep the state in the red column, it’s hard to imagine a Biden win. [AP & Fox called at 8p in ‘20]
Kansas (6, Trump) - Trump had a 15pt margin in ‘20 [Fox called at 8p in ‘20 others waited 1-2 hours]
Mississippi (6, Trump) - Hard to imagine a Trump loss here, although the Mike Espy Senate race is worth watching (an Espy win indicates the Dem’s would likely have a 60 vote filibuster-proof majority, assuming Dems win several other very unlikely Senate seats (AK, SC, AL, TX) [Fox called at 10:30p in ‘20]
Wicker (R-I) / Pincus (D) Roger Wicker’s seat is considered safe
Missouri (10, Trump) - Trump won the state in ‘20 by 15pts…[Fox called at 8p in ‘20, others waited until after 10:30p]
Hawley (R-I) / Kunce (D) Josh Hawley is another R incumbent likely to win re-election.
Oklahoma (7, Trump) - See Mississippi. OK gave Trump a 33% margin in ‘20. [All nets called at ~8p in ‘20]
Tennessee (11, Trump) - See Mississippi. Trump had a 26pt margin in ‘16 [AP & Fox called at 8p in ‘20]
Blackburn (R-I) / Johnson (D) Another safe R seat, with Marsha Blackburn likely to win.
Connecticut (7, Harris) - Nothing to see here, no predictive value. A Trump win means that every pollster would have to have been wrong by orders of magnitude [AP & Fox called at 8p in ‘20]
Illinois (20, Harris) - See Connecticut.
Delaware (3, Harris) - See Connecticut
Rochester (D) / Hansen (R) - Lisa Blunt Rochester is expected to win the seat Tom Carper (D) is retiring from
Maryland (10, L-Harris) - See Connecticut
Alsobrooks (D) / Hogan (R) - Ben Cardin (D) is retiring, and despite popular Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the race, indications are Angela Alsobrooks will win.
New Jersey (14, Harris) - See Connecticut
Kim (D) / Barshaw (R) - Andy Kim likely to fill Bob Menendez’s seat (currently held by George Helmy)
DC (3, Harris) - There’s no scenario outside of outright incredibly incompetent election thievery in which Harris doesn’t win DC (Biden had a 87pt Margin in ‘16).
Massachusetts (11, L-Harris) - See Connecticut or DC
Warren (D) / Deaton (R) - No contest for Elizabeth Warren
Rhode Island (4, L-Biden) - See Massachusetts.
8:30pm Eastern Time
Arkansas(6, Trump) - Shortly after the Decision desks call all the 8pm states, they will follow with Arkansas [AP & Fox called at 8:30p in ‘20]
9:00pm Eastern Time
By now the less cautious networks should have called at least 90 votes for Harris (CT, DE, DC, IL, ME, ME1, MD, MA, NJ, RI, VA, VT) and 104 for Trump (AL, AR, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, OK, SC, TN, WV) And, Despite zz votes closed by 8:30, it’s unlikely that 82 will have been called (FL, GA, ME2, NC, NH, OH, PA, WV). Returns from VA, GA and NC should hopefully be much clearer, and if any Biden20 state gets called for Trump by now (GA could be the first) then we’re looking at a Red wave. GA returns will be showing how accurate polling and turnout modeling has been, and give the decision desks (and the rest of us) a better sense of how to weight early returns in other states. Another 13 states (151 votes) close at 9pm (although, again, there could be long lines in places like NY, MI, WI, TX, etc.) and networks may call some obvious states quickly if their modeling in the 7pm states proved correct. -- LA, NE, NE1, NE3, WY, & SD, ) are likely to be called for Trump before 9:30 in all but a catastrophic loss (either a loss for Trump or a loss of confidence in predictive models by the networks). And, NY will go to Harris (I don’t think NM will go to Harris as early as ‘20, but there are many scenarios that could make the networks more cautious on calling it given they won’t have other SW states closed before then) leaving several new states undecided - (AZ, CO, MI, MN, NE2, TX, WI).
Turning on your TV set at 9:30 (if you can wait that long) should show Harris 128, Trump 125, and 10 states and 2 CDs still uncalled (163 votes - AZ, FL, NC, NH, ME2, MI, MN, NE2, NM, PA, TX, WI). Thus, if you’re a Harris fan, you could get nervous, but that would be premature (unless MI, PA, WI, VA or another Biden state goes to Trump, and that’s when you start Googling “how to apply for Canadian passport”)...
Looking at early numbers from Arizona, Colorado and Texas will fill out the contours more broadly. I think between 9:30 and 10p is when those with access to enough precinct level data can start making accurate predictions on the Senate and Electoral College. We likely won’t hear those predictions until 10:30-11p unless the early returns are overwhelmingly strong in one direction. OR for states where the final vote margins are <.5%
Louisiana (8, Trump) - T won by 19pts in ‘20. [AP & Fox called at 9p in ‘20]
Wyoming (3, Trump) - Given his 44pt margin in ‘20 (and 46 in ‘16), anything but a 40pt win shows tremendous softness [AP & Fox called at 9p in ‘20]
Barasso (R-I) / Morrow (D) Another safe R seat and likely early night for John Barrasso
S. Dakota (3, Trump) - Another likely victory (Trump had a 36pt margin in ‘20) [AP & Fox called at 9p in ‘20]
New York (28, Harris) - Even if Trump narrows the gap from his 23 pt loss in ‘16 and ‘20, he is very unlikely to win. [AP, CBS, Fox & MSNBC called at 9p in ‘20]
Gillebrand (D-I) / Sapracione (R) Kirsten Gillebrand considered safe in HRC’s former seat.
Michigan (15, Tossup) - Biden won by 2.8% in ‘20 and Trump .2% in ‘16. It’s unclear how quickly returns will come in -- cities can start processing mail-in ballots on Monday 11/2, but they may not all be loaded by the time polls close. [most of the nets called this just after 4p on Wed. in ‘20]
Slotkin (D) / Rogers (R) Elissa Slotkin has been poll ahead of Mike Rogers to fill Debbie Stabenow’s seat but the race will be close
Wisconsin (10, Tossup) - See Michigan, above. Biden won by .6 in ‘20, Trump by .7% in ‘16. [The networks called this just after 2p on Wed in ‘20 ]
Baldwin (D-I) / Hovde (R) xx xxxxx
Minnesota (10, L-Harris) - Biden won by 7 pts in 20 but Hillary by only 1.5% in ‘16. With Gov. Tim Walz as Harris’ running mate, it’s not looking good for Trump. They typically count ballots quickly and are able to start processing mail-in ballots 2 weeks before election day. [AP called just after midnight in ‘20]
Klobuchar (D-I) / White (R) Considered a safe seat for Amy Klobuchar.
Arizona (11, Tossup) - Polling is showing Trump much stronger than in ‘20 (when he lost by .3%) closer to his 3.6% win in ‘16. On the Senate side, with Sinema retiring, D-Gallegos has been polling strong. The state has extensive experience with mail-in voting and ballots can be processed starting two weeks before eDay. Results will come in fast, but while Fox called early (~3am on Wed.) in ‘20, most other orgs waited a week.
Gallego (D) / Lake (R) Kyrsten Sinema (I) retiring, polling shows race leaning Gallego vs. Lake who failed to defeat Mark Kelly two years ago
Colorado (9, L-Harris) - Trump lost by 13% in ‘20 and polling suggests another Harris win [Fox called at 9p and most others just after 9:30p in ‘20]
Nebraska (5, Trump) - Actually, NE is solidly Trump (19 pt margin in ‘20) BUT the NE2 CD, around Lincoln and Omaha was won by Biden in ‘20 and Obama in 2008. Like Maine, NE apportions its EVs by CD (one to the winner of each CD, two to the statewide winner). Electoral college modelers love coming up with scenarios in which NE1 gives a candidate a 270 to 268 win (they love coming up with 269-269 scenarios even more, but I try to eschew doom-modeling). Independent xxxx is doing remarkably well in the Senate race against xxx (R, Incumbent) [AP & Fox called all but NE2 at 9p in ‘20]
Fischer (R-I) / Osborn (I) Surprisingly competitive seat that was supposed to be a shoe-in for 2-term Senator Deb Fischer.
New Mexico (5, L-Harris) - Clinton won by 8.3pts, and Biden is ahead by double digits in most polls. If polling proves accurate in earlier swing states (NC, VA, parts of GA) the networks may decide to call this early.
Heinrich (D-I) / Domenici (R) Currently leaning to Martin Heinrich
Texas (40, L-Trump) - All eyes will be on Texas long past the 9pm eastern poll close. Long lines in Dallas and Houston, long delays in vote counting in many counties, and other complexities are likely to make the outcome of all races there uncertain until early Wed. t time in awhile (Ds need to flip 9 seats to win). [Fox called aggressively at 11:55p in ‘20, AP & MSNBC waited another hour until 1a]
Cruz (R-I) / Allred (D) - Polling suggests this is Cruz’s to lose, Colin Allred has been running a very strong campaign.
10:00pm Eastern Time
Another two solidly Trump states (MT & UT) close as does one lean Trump (IA) and a tossup (NV). By now we should have some good 20v24 comparisons for areas from some 8pm tossups -- FL, NH, ME2. By 10:30, assuming no new tossups are called for Trump or Harris I expect the EC to be Trump 141, Harris 128, uncalled 167 [Assuming there are no major surprises, folks who are comfortable trusting polls may want to add 78 at this point for Harris (CA, OR, WA, HI) and give 10 more to Trump (ND, ID, AK). That would put it at Trump 151, Harri 206.
Nevada (6, Tossup) - Biden and Clinton both beat Trump by 2.4%. Counting the early votes is a bit of a nightmare, especially in Clark County (Las Vegas). But modeling based on NM & AZ should enable a much earlier call than last year when the nets waited until Saturday.
Rosen (D-I) / Brown (R) Leaning toward Jacky Rosen, but Sam Brown is running a strong campaign
Iowa (6, L-Trump) - Trump has won this by >9% the last two cycles, but it typically isn’t called for a few hours.
Montana (4, Trump) - Trump won by 16pts in ‘20 [AP called at 12:20 in ‘‘20]
Tester (D-I) / Sheehy (R) John Tester, is a lonely blue man in a very red state, polling has this leaning to Tim Sheehy.
Utah (6, Trump) - Trump won by 21pts in ‘20 [MSNBC called at 10:30 in ‘20]
Curtis (R) / Gleich (D) Mitt Romney is retiring John Curtis is expected to win the seat.
After 11:00pm Eastern Time
A lot could still be unknown by most sane people’s bedtime (on the East coast at least)... Polls in Alaska won’t close until 1am Eastern
When 11 rolls around, several predictable calls will be made as ND, ID, CA, OR, and WA close -- by 11:30, will have Trump 188, Harris 199. After that, it’s a question of how quickly FL, NC, PA, WI, MI, and other states get called. If Harris has won NC, NV or GA, or Trump is going to win NC, PA, MI, or MN, 11:30 then the likely the outcome of the election is clear. It’s also possible Trump will get close to 215 by 11p if FL, OH, and TX called earlier [this include IA, MT & UT which the nets have historically delayed past 11]], leaving AZ, NC and PA as determinants.
California (54, Biden) - [AP, FOX, CNN, MSNBC called at ~11p in ‘20]
Schiff (D) / Garvey (R) Seat once held by Kamala Harris, then occupied by Newom appointee Laphonza Butler, now up for election – polling shows Adam Schiff far out in front.
Oregon (8, Biden) - [AP, FOX, CNN, MSNBC called at ~11p in ‘20]
Washington (12, Biden) - [AP, FOX, CNN, MSNBC called at ~11p in ‘20]
Cantwell (D-I) / Garcia (R) 4-term Incumbent Maria Cantwell is expected to win.
Idaho (4, Trump) - [AP, FOX, CNN, MSNBC called at ~11p in ‘20]
North Dakota (3, Trump) - [AP & FOX called at ~11p in ‘20]
Midnight
Hawaii (4, Harris) - Biden won by 34pts [AP & FOX called by ~12:05a in ‘20]
Hirono (D-I) / McDermott (R) Another safe (D) seat for Mazie Hirono.
1am
Alaska (3, Trump) - While it takes many days to count the rural ballots, and the nets don’t usually make a call until midday on Wed, count this in the Trump column
Twitter on eNight: [click any link to follow on twitter]
I'm @evangrosmsan Here are some other folks I follow for real-time insights:
National:
@redistrict - Dave Wasserman editor / data wonk at Cook Political
@NateSilver538 - Official feed for 538’s editor in chief
@Nate_cohn - NY TImes Upshot reporter
@bonier - Tom Bonier, expert on Voter files and tracking voter-by-voter data
@joetrippi - Dem campaign consultant
@Davidaxelrod - Former Obama campaign manager, good commentary
@nicco - Nicco Mele media maven and pundit
@JacobRubashkin - Inside Elections analyst
@maristpoll - Very well respected polling org.
State Specific:
GA: @bluestein Greg Bluestein, AJC political reporter
AZ: @Garrett_Archer - Phoenix ABC affiliate’s politics / data wonk
About the author:
Hi I’m Evan Grossman, and have volunteered and worked on elections from an early age (I did lit drops as an 8-year old for McGovern in ‘72). My first job out of college was Director of Analytics for the Dukakis campaign (we came in 2nd). I’ve run election day boiler rooms for multiple elections and have been the person who advises a candidate on when to concede or if a victory is likely. I got it wrong in 2000 (thought Gore would win FL and could win NH) and have been wrong many other times. Usually, if I have access to good data from poll watchers, I’ve always been able to call an election in advance of AP & nets and expect to have good models this time for MI, PA and GA. I plan to spend election night in front of my computer live tweeting interesting statistics from my @evangrossman twitter account.and facebook EvanGrossman handle.
Sources used: {links will be live by 10/31
Poll closing times by time zone and state
Rules for counting mail ballots by state
Google Sheet with latest polling, closing times, Senate race details and 2020 results
PDF for following the Presidential & Senate race