Rays of sunshine
But nothing is certain
Gentle reader,
I try to stay focused on unbiased analytics, and not cherry-pick the good news, but for those of us that need a few tidbits to keep us door-knocking, phone calling, sending $ in response to text messaging, etc, here are a few items that show momentum is on our side:
The latest NYT/Siena poll. the NYT just sent me a breaking news alert as I was writing this with their final poll. The Siena College / NYT polling is considered super high quality and shows movement in the correct direction (other than in PA where Trump has gained slightly). This contrasts with recent Atlas Intel showing Trump ahead in all seven. Atlas is generally a high-quality polling outfit that Silver weights only slightly below the NYT (1.53 for Siena vs. 1.47 for Atlas). I’ll go with confirmation basis and believe the NYT for the next few days…
Iowa - Highly respected pollster Ann Selzer, did a final poll for the Des Moines Register showing Harris with a +3 margin (47 to 44)… A few points — A) this took guts, at a time when other pollsters tend to sand down result spikes to meet herd consensus; B) she’s probably wrong — a Democrat hasn’t won Iowa since Obama in ‘12. BUT, clearly momentum is in the direction most of us want. And, if this is indicative of midwestern movement, then Wisconsin and Michigan may be pulling ahead for Harris. Nate Silver does a great analysis of the Selzer poll here. And the NYT’s Nate Cohn says it may not be an aberration because their polling shows Harris doing surprisingly well in NE1&2 which are right next door.
Cook’s Dave Wasserman puts this in context, and it’s why I see it as such a positive sign:
It’s worth noting we’ve been seeing great polls for Harris (though not as rosy as tonight’s Selzer) in places like Omaha and Des Moines for months. What do they have in common? Really high shares of white college grads and lower nonwhite shares than other metros.Finally, I think all the signs I’m watching show that momentum has moved to Harris’ direction. Yesterday’s Silver prediction graph captures this (but you’ll need to extrapolate out 3 days and assume the upward trend continues and isn’t an aberration)
Finally, for my schadenfreude aficionados, I give you Tim Albert’s inside look at the Trumpsterfire campaign team in The Atlantic. Albert quotes DJT as saying, “What’s discipline got to do with winning?”
And, on top of that is Harris’ appearance on SNL last night — jump to 5:41 if you don’t to just see KH & Maya Rudolph together
Keep Kamala and Carry on-ala…
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