Tx Primary
Encouraging results for Ds in the upcoming midterms
I’m taking a break from my busy ski season to highlight a few trends from the recent Tx primaries, which suggest very high voter engagement, even compared with the 2018 and 2022 midterms (2018, during Trump v1 was the previous highest).
The person I rely on most for turnout analysis (especially early vote analysis) is U of Florida Pro. Michael McDonald, so for folks who want all the deets, I suggest you look at his post from today.
The TLDR is: 1) Democrats are more engaged than Republicans; 2) even accounting for the large population growth in Tx, this is a very, very high turnout #. 3) It’s anyone’s guess if this is finally the year Tx elects a D statewide (it hasn’t since ‘94 when it elected 4 Ds to state offices: Lieut. Gov, AG, Comptroller, Land Commissioner). 4) Early voting continues to predict total turnout, and more restrictive mail-ballot rules decreased early mail, but there was an even larger increase in early in-person. More interestingly, R’s did not come out on primary day in much larger numbers than previously (the e-day “red wave” that happens when Rs think early voting is not secure).
Below is from McDonald’s post on this. The bottom line shows the increase in turnout as a % of eligible population (as opposed to % of registration which is how most report but is subject to greater shifts based on voter roll purges, rock-the-vote campaigns, etc.
Turnout Increased Dramatically From 2018,
That’s it for now. For folks that want to support a great non-profit that fights rural poverty in Southern Vermont, I’ll be skiing in the Stratton24 next weekend — donate here.
